NFL tells Supreme Court sports prediction contracts are gambling, not swaps

The National Football League filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Supreme Court in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, No. 26-299. The NFL supports New Jersey regulators in arguing that sports prediction contracts are gambling and should not be exempt from state regulation under the federal derivatives framework. The NFL argues that contracts offered by Kalshi and other prediction markets are not financial swaps subject to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive jurisdiction.

The NFL said its argument draws on reasoning from the Sixth and Ninth Circuits that swaps traditionally hedge preexisting financial risk. The NFL argues that sports contracts instead expose consumers to event outcomes in which consumers have no underlying financial interest. The case could determine whether prediction markets can offer sports contracts nationwide under federal CFTC oversight or whether states can apply their own gambling laws. The NFL asks the Supreme Court to hear the case, arguing that a growing split among courts has created regulatory uncertainty.

The NFL said nearly $2 billion of $3.3 billion in prediction market trading volume on the first Sunday of the NFL season concerned NFL events. Prediction market trading volume exceeded $25 billion in 2025. Kalshi had cleared more than $173 billion in overall volume by late August 2026. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach said the NFL has most forcefully advocated for federal regulation but considers the current framework inadequate. Wallach said the brief meaningfully increases the chances that the Supreme Court will agree to hear the case.

The NFL urged Kalshi and Polymarket in March to stop offering contracts the NFL considers vulnerable to manipulation, including markets concerning individual plays and player injuries. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has said the agency would defer to sports leagues on integrity concerns. The NFL also argues that prediction market operators should adopt safeguards comparable to those used by state-regulated sportsbooks. The NFL seeks restrictions on certain contracts, higher age limits and greater cooperation with leagues on insider information.

The NFL's position contrasts with the positions of other major U.S. sports leagues. Major League Baseball named Polymarket its exclusive prediction market partner earlier this year. Major League Baseball separately partnered with the CFTC on betting integrity. The National Hockey League has licensing agreements with both Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket signed an exclusive licensing deal with Major League Soccer in January.

Kalshi rejected the NFL's position, saying Kalshi prioritizes market integrity and the CFTC is already policing sports-related markets. Kalshi pointed to partnerships with other leagues. Kalshi said federal oversight provides a more consistent framework than state-by-state regulation. Intellectual property lawyer Ariel Givner argued that the states and the NFL are conflating the underlying sporting event with the nature of the financial contract.