Anthropic's potential $2 trillion IPO fuels an $80 million crypto trade

Nearly $80 million in crypto derivatives positions have emerged around Anthropic before the company has held a public offering. Open interest in futures linked to the Claude developer reached about $79.27 million, close to a record $80 million, as traders positioned around an IPO that could become one of the largest ever attempted. Anthropic has not disclosed an offering price, final valuation or number of shares it intends to sell. CoinGlass data showed the ANTHROPIC pre-stock contract trading around $2,147, with more than $20 million changing hands in futures over 24 hours. Binance accounted for roughly 40% of the activity. The contract does not represent Anthropic stock, and CoinGlass shows no circulating supply or spot trading for it. Anthropic remains privately held, so the contract's price reflects derivatives traders' attempts to value exposure to a company whose shares are not publicly available. Anthropic confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in June and said then that it had not determined the number of shares or their price. Investors have discussed a valuation of as much as $2 trillion. The Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic plans to stage the IPO in November, later than the October timetable investors had previously expected. Open interest across Anthropic and OpenAI pre-IPO perpetuals surpassed $160 million this month, up from roughly $1 million in April and by 179% from a month earlier, Binance Research said. The two companies accounted for about 95% of pre-IPO perpetual volume during the first 14 days of September. Binance Research described these perpetuals as cash-settled derivatives that reference an anticipated public-company valuation or share price and do not require underlying shares. Growing open interest shows increased participation and leverage but does not by itself show that traders are overwhelmingly bullish because every futures position has a long side and a short side. OpenAI-linked instruments rose after the company released its Astra model earlier this month and fell after Chief Executive Sam Altman indicated that its IPO could be delayed, Binance Research said. Reuters reported earlier this month that some investors were discussing a $2 trillion valuation for Anthropic. The company is also considering releasing another AI model before the IPO as competition with OpenAI intensifies. Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire urged Anthropic to move to public markets, saying concerns about market volatility, valuation and AI safety strengthen the case for greater public scrutiny. Allaire cited Circle's experience after the USDC issuer went public in June 2025. Circle priced its IPO at $31 per share, and the total offering reached about $1.2 billion, including shares sold by existing shareholders and the full exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option. Allaire said going public imposed audited financial reporting, quarterly disclosures, independent board governance and Sarbanes-Oxley controls that made Circle easier for banks, governments and enterprise customers to evaluate. He argued that frontier AI companies are reaching a similar point as their technology becomes embedded across businesses and economic infrastructure. He said information about model capabilities, safety procedures, computing commitments, revenue concentration and corporate governance remains largely inside privately held companies. Allaire said an IPO would require Anthropic to disclose substantially more about its finances, dependencies and risks and would expose management decisions to investors, regulators and recurring reporting requirements. He also said an IPO cannot replace AI regulation, drawing a parallel with stablecoins. Once Anthropic makes its registration documents public, traders will be able to compare assumptions in the pre-IPO contracts with the revenue, costs, risks and share structure presented to prospective shareholders.