BOJ to more than double annual ETF sales to ¥860 billion from January 2027

The Bank of Japan will increase planned annual ETF disposals from about ¥330 billion to ¥860 billion at book value following a decision on October 30. The faster sales will begin in January 2027, increasing the supply that private investors must absorb. The ETFs contain Japanese equities, not Bitcoin. The Bank of Japan estimates the new annual disposal pace at about ¥2,460 billion using indicative market values. The estimate applies the market-to-book ratio for ETFs sold between January and September 2026. The disposals will be distributed throughout the year.

The revised pace aims for sales equivalent to about 0.1% of trading, based on Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market data for January-September 2026. The previous pace targeted about 0.05% of market trading when the September 2025 decision was made. The trading-share estimates draw on different reference periods. The disposal framework permits temporary changes or pauses in sales in response to financial-market conditions. The Bank of Japan says sales since January 2026 have progressed smoothly without major market disruption as stock-market trading expanded.

The overnight call-rate guideline remains around 1.25%. The September decision set that target, which took effect on September 24. The ETF announcement changes equity supply without introducing another policy-rate increase for yen borrowing.

The Bank for International Settlements described a historical example of financial stress spreading across markets in the institution's September 2024 review. The review describes August 2024 turbulence when yen appreciation, unwinding carry trades and equity volatility coincided with wider deleveraging and margin calls, including in crypto. Carry trades finance higher-yielding investments with borrowing in currencies that have lower interest rates. Greater equity volatility could push leveraged investors to cut positions across assets, potentially including Bitcoin, if portfolio limits or additional collateral demands constrain those investors. Implementation in January will test the market's capacity to absorb the accelerated ETF disposals.