Musk says SpaceX will probably top $100 trillion within 10 years, barring major world war

Elon Musk said on X on October 15 that SpaceX will probably exceed $100 trillion in value within 10 years. Musk's only caveat was a major world war. The target is about 48 times SpaceX's $2.07 trillion market value at the October 14 close. Musk made the prediction in response to a clip of Baron Capital founder Ron Baron forecasting a valuation of up to $50 trillion. Late last year, Musk had described a $100 trillion SpaceX valuation only as possible.

Baron made the forecast in a Columbia Business School interview. Baron predicted that SpaceX shares would be worth thousands of dollars each and cited potential valuations of $20 trillion, $30 trillion and $50 trillion. Baron said Musk considered Baron's forecast far too low. Baron described SpaceX's current value as $2 trillion.

Baron expects Starlink to reach a valuation of $14 trillion to $15 trillion within the next decade. Baron said Starlink remains at a very early stage of that growth. Baron also sees space-based data centers as a potentially larger business, worth several times more than Starlink.

SpaceX shares have fluctuated sharply during the four months since the company went public in the largest IPO on record. The debut briefly made Musk the world's first trillionaire. SpaceX shares peaked at $225.64 within days, but a subsequent decline pushed Musk's fortune below $1 trillion. Musk's fortune has hovered around that threshold since, falling below $1 trillion again on October 13, according to Forbes.

SpaceX's financial statements show that only Starlink generated an operating profit last quarter. SpaceX's AI division spent $15.8 billion on infrastructure over the same period. SpaceX is reportedly seeking another $40 billion in debt for Nvidia chips to fund the infrastructure expansion.

SpaceX's credit default swaps, which provide protection against a borrower failing to repay, surged after the debt report. The Financial Times said five-year contracts reached 194 basis points, up from about 110 basis points in June. At that level, protection on $1 million of SpaceX debt costs about $19,400 a year. SpaceX still holds an investment-grade BBB credit rating.

SpaceX's IPO filing presented a more cautious assessment of orbital data centers. The filing said orbital AI computing and in-orbit, lunar and interplanetary industrialization initiatives remain in early stages. The filing warned that those initiatives involve significant technical complexity and unproven technologies and may not achieve commercial viability. SpaceX's ability to justify a $100 trillion valuation depends on converting those plans into lasting revenue while managing rising infrastructure costs. SpaceX's upcoming Starship flight and third-quarter results could provide further indications.