Bitcoin rally stalls as long-term sentiment stays bullish

Bitcoin fell as low as $76,877 on Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote. Bitcoin closed at $77,557. Bitcoin fell 3.39% that day. The decline followed an overnight high of $81,455. That level was inside a resistance zone that had capped several previous breakout attempts this year. Warsh said the Federal Reserve needs inflation to move clearly toward its target at sufficient speed before declaring its work complete. Warsh said the central bank still had work to do. Traders interpreted the remarks as hawkish. September rate-hike odds rose to 55.7%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The odds were 35.4% a day earlier. CoinGlass recorded roughly $481 million in crypto liquidations over the 24 hours around the speech. Long positions accounted for more than $360 million of those liquidations. Myriad's BTC next move market assigned a 77% probability to a move to $84,000. The market assigned a 23% probability to a drop to $55,000. The market has traded since late February. It has recorded $231,000 in trading volume. The market has no fixed resolution date. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.8 billion in inflows through Wednesday. The inflows continued for eight straight days. That was the longest such streak since April. The bullish technical assessment describes the pullback as digestion rather than a reversal. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index was 69.7. Bitcoin's Average Directional Index was near 39.5. Bitcoin remained within a move from the June low near $68,858 to the week's high near $81,455. Traders identified the $73,670 to $75,157 band as the first area to watch if the selloff extends. A close below that band would put the 50-week moving average and the June breakout structure in question. The $81,000 to $82,500 range remained the level that bulls needed to reclaim for new highs. The Treasury Department announced plans to at least double long-dated bond buybacks starting September 9. The announcement supported part of the bond market that had seen weak demand since June. Lower long-term yields and a softer dollar revived the debasement trade. That trade supported Bitcoin's climb from roughly $62,000 to $80,000 this month. Warsh set no explicit rate path. Traders have no clear signal until the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. The PCE price index was running at 3.7% annually. The Federal Reserve's target was 2%. Warsh gave no timeline for inflation to reach that target.