Olas model matches GPT-4.1 in prediction-market test

Olas unveiled Olas-Predict-R1-14B on Tuesday after training it on 214,529 forecasts from 5,116 resolved prediction markets. The model achieved 75.8% accuracy across 2,628 previously unseen markets, compared with 75.4% for OpenAI's GPT-4.1 and 71.4% for the underlying DeepSeek model, according to benchmark materials. The models were not shown existing market odds during the test, so they could not simply copy the crowd. Fine-tuning improved the model's Brier score by roughly 20%, and that metric rewards accurate probabilities while penalizing confident mistakes. David Minarsch, CEO of Valory and a founding member of Olas, said the results indicate another path to AI performance besides larger general-purpose models. He said frontier models face increasing economic pressure from specialized systems and may need new markets to maintain their growth rates. Olas says the model can run on a single GPU and that its publicly available weights allow developers to run it themselves instead of paying a closed AI provider for each forecast. TrendForce expects the nine largest cloud providers to spend more than $886.7 billion in total capital expenditures in 2026, up roughly 90%, with AI infrastructure driving much of the increase. NVIDIA is central to that spending because larger models generally require more GPUs and data-center capacity. Minarsch stopped short of saying that spending is misplaced, noting that Olas-Predict itself was built on a model that required far more computing power to create. He said cheaper specialist systems could nevertheless pressure closed-model economics by handling particular jobs as well as larger systems. Thomson Reuters has also invested about $40 million to build a specialist model using an open foundation model and proprietary data, saying ownership provides greater control over performance, privacy and costs. In an experiment requested by the publisher, Olas-Predict gave NVIDIA a 70% chance of ending 2026 as the world's largest company by market capitalization, while Polymarket traders currently put NVIDIA at 78%. Olas says the model is available for download on Hugging Face, and its marketplace offers pay-per-call access.