Bernstein sees prediction market volumes reaching $10 trillion by 2035

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, forecast annual prediction market trading volume could reach $10 trillion by 2035, compared with an estimated $410 billion in 2026. In a note to clients on Tuesday, they said volume could compound at about 70% annually between 2025 and 2035. Industry-wide activity rose from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in 2026 through August. Bernstein expects financial assets, including crypto, equities and commodities, to increase from roughly 12% of volume in 2025 to 49% by 2035. Sports is expected to remain a major category, but its share is forecast to fall from 61% in 2025 to 38% in 2035. The analysts expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric rather than a stock price. They also said perpetual futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single-stock contracts. Short-duration crypto and commodity contracts, including 15-minute bitcoin markets, contributed to the increase in 2026 trading, according to Bernstein. Sports volumes also surged around the FIFA World Cup and remained at record levels after the tournament ended. Crypto's share of Kalshi's volume rose from less than 5% in January to about 20% in August. Commodity trading volume increased from less than $2 million in 2025 to roughly $590 million in 2026 year-to-date, including $410 million in August alone. Kalshi held about 60% of industry volume through August, compared with 35% in 2025. On Polymarket, sports contracts represented about 52% of global volume in 2026 year-to-date, up from 39% in 2025. Politics accounted for 22%, down from 32%, while crypto represented about 21%. Bernstein estimates the addressable market for financial-asset contracts at roughly $700 trillion in 2025 and $900 trillion by 2035. Its model assumes prediction markets capture 0.5% of that pool by 2035, generating about $4.7 trillion in annual volume. Bernstein said ultimate clarity for U.S. sports prediction markets is unlikely before 2027-28 because of conflicting court decisions over federal derivatives oversight and state gaming authority.