Bitcoin rebounds near $80,700 as IBIT ends ETF outflow streak

Bitcoin recovered to nearly $80,700 on Tuesday after briefly falling below $80,000. Investors were assessing whether fresh demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could support Bitcoin ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. SoSoValue data showed that the funds received $110.34 million on Monday, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) providing the entire net inflow. The inflows ended two consecutive sessions that produced $773.4 million in outflows. However, cumulative October flows remained negative, with approximately $202 million in net outflows through Monday.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received $526.6 million on October 19. The funds received another $528.4 million on October 21. The funds then lost $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 2025. Friday brought a further $137.9 million in outflows. IBIT, Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) were among the funds leading the recent selling.

The 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs held approximately $102.84 billion in net assets, representing around 6.4% of Bitcoin's market capitalization. Monday's inflows went exclusively into IBIT, leaving uncertainty about how widely renewed demand extended across the funds. Benzinga Pro showed IBIT trading just below resistance around $45.70. The $45.70 level has repeatedly constrained gains, and a sustained move above that level could indicate a bullish trend and attract additional buyers. IBIT has support near $45.12, matching the recent intraday low. A retreat toward $45.12 may attract buyers and reinforce bullish sentiment if that support holds.

Bitcoin financial services firm River, in a breakdown cited by 99Bitcoins, put individuals' holdings at 79.6% of tradable Bitcoin. River put businesses' holdings at 9.4% of tradable Bitcoin. River assigned 8.5% of tradable Bitcoin to funds and ETFs. River put governments' holdings at 2.5% of tradable Bitcoin.

ETF flows can affect prices at the margin despite ETFs holding a relatively small portion of available Bitcoin. Demand that creates new ETF shares can require funds to purchase additional Bitcoin. Redemptions can instead prompt Bitcoin sales. Concentrated transactions can exert an unusually large short-term effect when market liquidity is limited. However, ETF flows are only one influence on Bitcoin prices, alongside derivatives positioning, overall risk appetite and macroeconomic developments.

The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday is the next major catalyst. Investors will monitor whether Bitcoin stays above $80,000. Investors will also watch whether inflows spread beyond IBIT and whether cumulative October ETF flows become positive. Persistent inflows into multiple funds would provide stronger evidence that demand is broadening. Further outflows could indicate that Monday's recovery was temporary. Whether renewed ETF demand can sustain Bitcoin's recovery, rather than leave Bitcoin exposed to additional selling, remains an open question.