Trump Says US Could Exit Iran War as Hormuz Stays Blocked, Brent Up 55% in March

Key Point

Trump said Tuesday the US could end its war on Iran within two to three weeks and said Washington could leave without a deal once Iran could no longer build a nuclear weapon. Brent crude rose about 55% in March, while US gasoline averaged $4.02 a gallon and diesel climbed above $5 as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked. Trump said other countries should reopen the waterway. The UAE is the only Gulf Arab state to volunteer for a naval force, and Bahrain is seeking a UN Security Council resolution for a separate maritime task force. The White House said Trump will address the nation Wednesday night before his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, and the administration has signaled possible military action if Tehran does not comply, including intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude.

Why it matters: A durable reopening of the strait could be the main channel for easing energy costs and improving broader risk sentiment, while a prolonged blockage could keep macro pressure elevated across markets.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bearish, Risk-off, Macro-driven, Volatile.

Reason: The Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, which keeps energy markets tight and leaves broader risk assets exposed to more macro stress.

Similar Past Cases

When the Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal in March 2021, traffic stalled for six days and AP reported the disruption held up about $9 billion a day in global trade before the ship was refloated. The difference is that the Suez blockage was an accident with a clear clearance process, while the current Hormuz disruption is tied to active conflict and oil flows. (AP)

Ripple Effect

A prolonged Hormuz disruption could keep oil and diesel costs elevated, which may tighten financial conditions and pressure risk appetite across crypto and other assets. Higher freight and fuel costs could also feed into inflation expectations and slow any relief in broader markets. If tanker traffic does not normalize after the April 6 deadline, then markets may treat the conflict as a longer energy supply shock rather than a short military episode.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: If tanker traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz or Trump outlines a clear reopening path in his Wednesday address, then that could be a potential re-entry signal for risk assets because the energy shock may start to ease.

Risks: If the April 6 deadline passes without reopening or the administration moves to intercept tankers, then reducing risk exposure can limit downside from a deeper oil-driven macro squeeze.