Bitcoin regains $84,000, but Fed decision and MSCI changes may threaten rally

Bitcoin recovered to $84,000 on Wednesday after rising around 2.5%. Renewed ETF inflows and slower profit-taking supported Bitcoin's recovery from last week's low. Bitcoin briefly touched $80,100 on October 15 before rebounding above the average acquisition cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Glassnode data identifies $80,000 to $81,500 as a critical support range, strengthened by corporate treasury holdings and renewed buy orders on Binance. Bitcoin faces resistance between $85,000 and $87,500, where sell orders overlap with liquidation clusters. A move above $87,500 could force short positions into liquidation. A drop below $80,000 could send Bitcoin toward $77,600.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs received almost $653 million in net inflows on October 19, ending a week of outflows. The daily inflow was the largest since September 22. However, trading remains quiet, with the funds' 30-day average volume below a quarter of the year-earlier level. On-chain data indicates that selling pressure is easing, with realized profits running at roughly half the pace recorded during the week of Bitcoin's September high. Bitcoin treasury companies have sharply curtailed purchases. Monthly purchases since June have stayed below 10% of the November 2024 peak.

The Federal Reserve's October 28 interest rate decision presents a potential challenge to Bitcoin's rally. The decision comes against a backdrop of rising oil prices, persistent inflation and a two-year Treasury yield near 4.8%. Higher borrowing costs could weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

MSCI will release the final list of companies affected by new rules for classifying non-operating companies on November 11. The classification changes will take effect on November 30. Strategy and Metaplanet were among the companies identified in an earlier test, raising concerns about potential selling linked to index changes.