Bitcoin holds above $80,000 as ETF inflows support early bull case

Bitcoin briefly touched $81,000 on Monday before retreating and holding above $80,000. The rally followed last week's U.S. Treasury buyback announcement. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached 83, classified as Extreme Greed. Min Jung of Presto Research called the move a catch-up trade rather than the start of a new bull cycle. Jung cited tight liquidity, sticky inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty as risks. Jeff Mei of BTSE said he would consider a bull market only after Bitcoin stayed above $100,000 for a month. Mei also said Federal Reserve rate cuts remained uncertain. Bitcoin gained more than $16,000 over the week. Market analysts said the gain and returning solid spot ETF inflows strengthened the case for a sustained rally. Ether gained 32% over the same period. XRP gained 53%. Solana gained 34%. Justin d'Anethan of Arctic Digital said the move could signal a trend change from accumulation to an upward market. D'Anethan attributed the move to the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback decision and its effect on rates and capital conditions. He said additional signals from central banks or the U.S. Treasury could strengthen the move. He also cited strong ETF inflows, higher on-chain activity, and derivatives liquidity as crypto-native signals to watch. D'Anethan said the outlook was early but optimistic. Dominick John of Zeus Research said the rally needed softer inflation, lower Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. John said this week's PCE Price Index would be important for assessing whether inflation was cooling enough to support easier Federal Reserve policy and looser financial conditions. John said a softer reading could boost risk assets. He said a hotter reading could pressure yields and liquidity. Jung said 30-year Treasury yields had reached their highest level since 2007. Jung said elevated long-term rates pointed to tighter financial conditions and could challenge risk assets such as crypto.