Bitcoin rises 3% to $86,757 as third-quarter ETF inflows reach $6.34 billion

Bitcoin traded at $86,757 on Friday, up 3% over 24 hours and 2% on the week, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin remained about 31% below the record it set a year ago. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter, according to SoSoValue. The funds took in $2.65 billion in September, behind only August's $3.52 billion since October 2025. Their net assets stood at $109.3 billion. The funds lost $4.97 billion in the second quarter and $490 million in the first, leaving 2026 net inflows under $1 billion. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev counted inflows on 10 of the last 11 trading sessions, totaling roughly $3 billion. August core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% on Wednesday, below expectations of 3.3%. CME's FedWatch tool put the chance of a Federal Reserve rate hold on October 28 at 74%, up from 35.8% a week earlier. Traders on Myriad priced a hold at 75%. Kalchev said the odds had been evenly split as recently as September 29. New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday there was "no need for urgency" after September's rate hike, while retaining one more increase in his baseline for later this year. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Thursday that policymakers needed more time and should base adjustments on data and risks. HashKey's Tim Sun said high Treasury yields had capped Bitcoin and that short covering added to buying after the price broke out of its range. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week to September 26. Continuing claims fell to 1.7 million, their lowest level since March 2023. ADP private payrolls rose by 90,000, ahead of forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, against forecasts of about 90,000. Unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Downward revisions to July and August totaled 60,000 jobs, leaving July with a loss of 10,000. Average monthly job gains over the past year stood at 45,000. The analysts quoted about the economic outlook had commented before Friday's jobs report. The weak jobs figure strengthens the case for a rate hold while raising concerns that the labor market may be turning. September's consumer price index is due on October 14. Kalchev said cooling inflation without labor weakness generally supports risk assets, including Bitcoin. Sun said ETF inflows despite a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% indicated allocation-driven buying rather than a pursuit of liquidity. Sun said Morgan Stanley's ETF took in more than $200 million last month, suggesting major banks' wealth-management systems are beginning to include Bitcoin in client allocations. Kalchev said Bitcoin futures open interest was down about 12% from its September 22 peak and in the bottom decile of its one-year range. Kalchev concluded that the advance was not relying on leverage. However, Sun said open interest rose as Bitcoin's price climbed. Kalchev said options showed downside protection at $80,000 and below and calls at $89,000 to $92,000. Algoz's Stephen Wundke said October and November have historically been Bitcoin's best months, with an average October gain of 18% and a 46% gain across the quarter over the past decade. Wundke said traders currently see more potential upside than downside and predicted a rapid Bitcoin rise if softer figures arrive without another rate increase. The 10-year Treasury yield was at its highest since 2002, and the Fed still projected another hike this year. A strong payrolls figure or higher-than-expected inflation would make a December rate increase more likely. Wundke put the chance of an October hike at 40%, compared with 26% implied by futures. UPay chief executive Owen Yang said ETF flows and the SEC's custody work supported institutional adoption, but institutions buying at current prices could limit further gains. Kalchev said October's outcome for Bitcoin would depend on the economic environment and the Fed.