Analysis: Bitcoin ETFs lose $484.9 million as October net flows turn negative

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $484.9 million in outflows on Wednesday, the worst daily outflow since June 25, according to Decrypt's ETF tracker. BlackRock's IBIT recorded the largest outflow at $207.7 million. Fidelity's FBTC followed with $105.1 million in outflows. Wednesday's outflows erased roughly 81% of the inflows accumulated over the previous nine sessions, equivalent to about two weeks of buying. The funds still hold $57.8 billion in cumulative net inflows.

The funds recorded net outflows of $163.3 million for October through the 7th. The funds had opened October with $321.6 million in inflows over four sessions. Halloween remains 23 days away. Bitcoin's six-year streak of October gains ended in 2025, when Bitcoin fell 3.69% during the month.

The selling likely reflects macroeconomic pressures more than developments within crypto. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to about 5.7% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2002. Brent crude settled around $100 a barrel. Stocks declined from record highs. Ships around the Strait of Hormuz have suffered at least one attack a day since October 2, supporting high oil prices.

Expensive oil contributes to inflation, which keeps the Federal Reserve focused on restrictive monetary policy and keeps bond yields high. Bitcoin pays no interest, while a 10-year Treasury yields more than 5%. Institutions and large investors regularly compare those returns and risks, and those calculations move the market.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time since 2023. Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, released Wednesday, show most officials expect another increase before year end. However, traders remain skeptical of another increase. An October increase looks unlikely based on CME FedWatch odds and prediction markets. CME prices the probability of an October increase at 19.4%. Myriad gives an increase a 17% probability. The Federal Reserve next meets on October 27-28 and again on December 8-9. The September meeting minutes set no date for the next increase.

Bitcoin fell as low as $81,749.83 on Thursday, about 6% below the $86,978 peak reached earlier this week. CoinGlass reported roughly $429 million in derivatives positions liquidated over 24 hours. CoinGlass data show long positions accounted for 87.5% of those liquidations.