Traders value Anthropic at $1.9 trillion as investor warns IPO could mark AI bubble peak

Anthropic, the developer of Claude, filed an S-1 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Oct. 26, Monday, seeking a Nasdaq listing with the ticker ANT. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the offering, which could rank among the largest US IPOs. Anthropic has not disclosed a proposed share price or offering size, and market expectations suggest a November debut. Anthropic has not confirmed a trading date or offering valuation.

Crypto trading platform Liquid reported that Anthropic's implied valuation declined roughly 2% after the announcement to $1.88 trillion. Better Markets quoted an indicative pre-IPO price of $2,967.92 per share, implying an estimated valuation of $1.43 trillion under the platform's methodology. The valuations have prompted differing investor assessments of the listing's implications for the wider technology sector.

Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedic said Anthropic would likely start trading by mid-November. Dedic said the IPO could mark the "top of the AI bubble" or become one of private markets' largest wealth-creation events. Dedic argued that the offering could free substantial capital accumulated by early investors and employees for investment in startups and other markets. Some wealth generated by the AI investment boom could eventually reach other asset classes, including crypto. However, shareholder selling restrictions will determine when investors can realize proceeds.

Anthropic's first-half 2026 revenue reached $16.3 billion, approximately 1,300% above the roughly $1.16 billion recorded a year earlier. Social Capital, citing the IPO filing, highlighted quarterly revenue growth from $376 million in the first quarter of 2025 to $11.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026. That increase represented approximately 31-fold growth over five quarters. Anthropic's computing and infrastructure expenditure per dollar of revenue declined from approximately $2.51 in the first quarter of 2025 to about 48 cents in the second quarter of 2026. The efficiency improvement helped Anthropic achieve a $974 million June-quarter operating profit after a $1.67 billion operating loss in the preceding quarter.

However, Anthropic reported a quarterly net loss of $66.3 billion, largely because of noncash financing adjustments. Revaluation of convertible notes as Anthropic's valuation rose accounted for $59.6 billion of those adjustments. Anthropic's first-half net loss totaled $80.7 billion, including $72.4 billion in fair-value adjustments involving convertible notes, derivatives and related financing instruments.

Venture capitalist Nic Carter characterized the results as "robust and improving" and argued that the headline loss concealed improvements in underlying operations. However, Carter questioned whether approximately 22 times annualized third-quarter revenue justified a valuation approaching $1.5 trillion. Milk Road AI analyst Melvin argued that improving profitability and approximately $131.7 billion in cash and short-term investments challenge assumptions that frontier AI developers must continually obtain outside capital to sustain operations.

However, Anthropic's infrastructure obligations create substantial financial exposure. Anthropic has computing agreements with Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other providers that involve potential spending of hundreds of billions of dollars over several years. Anthropic's arrangements with SpaceX could alone involve $120.5 billion through 2029. The SpaceX agreements permit cancellation after initial periods during which cancellation is not allowed. Consumption-based services generated approximately 80% of Anthropic's first-half revenue, allowing customers to cut spending faster than Anthropic can unwind many infrastructure obligations. Anthropic warned that weaker demand could prevent the company from meeting minimum payments, potentially causing commercial defaults and accelerated repayment obligations under related financing arrangements. Anthropic increased revolving credit commitments to $15 billion. Anthropic must maintain at least $5 billion in quarterly liquidity beginning at the end of 2026.

Dedic questioned how thousands of newly wealthy employees and early investors might invest proceeds after selling restrictions expire. Anthropic's prospectus describes staggered lockups that permit certain shareholders to sell limited holdings on the first trading day, followed by further releases. Some employees may sell immediately, while other investors face restrictions of up to 180 days. Anthropic's co-founders and certain major shareholders face restrictions of up to 365 days, subject to specified early releases. The staggered schedule could distribute shareholder sales across several months instead of one lockup expiration. However, the final offering size and share count remain unset, leaving the dollar value of shares potentially released at each stage undetermined.