Bitcoin Breaks Above $80,000 as CoinShares Warns of Year-End Headwinds

Bitcoin rose 6% and broke above $80,000 on Friday. CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill wrote in a Friday note that two developments are weighing on Bitcoin into year-end. He said the Federal Reserve’s removal of expected easing through 2027 from its dot plot matters more than the rate hike itself. In his view, the change supports the dollar and delays the liquidity conditions that Bitcoin typically benefits from. He also said Iran’s ongoing conflict is keeping energy prices elevated and raising the odds of another rate hike this year. Butterfill said the failure of the Clarity Act is not a multi-year delay. He said stablecoin issuers are now buying meaningful amounts of US government debt at elevated yields, keeping the bill relevant to both parties, and that a revised version could return as early as next year. The impact is uneven across digital assets. Bitcoin is relatively insulated because of its clearer regulatory footing, while Ethereum and other altcoins have greater exposure because much of the stablecoin payment infrastructure runs on their networks. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl offered a more measured view of the rate hike, calling it a mid-cycle adjustment rather than a policy shift. Pandl compared it with the Greenspan Fed’s 1997 mid-cycle hike, after which the Nasdaq bull market continued. He expects one or two more rate hikes in 2026 to have a limited effect on capital allocation into digital assets. Pandl also said stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether benefit from higher rates through their Treasury and money market reserves. Bitcoin climbed to $80,804 on Friday, breaking out of a descending triangle and clearing the falling trendline and the EMA cluster in one candle. The MACD turned bullish after crossing back above its signal line following weeks of fading momentum. The 20-day EMA at $77,217 was reclaimed as support. The next major test is $82,000, identified as the September high and the triangle’s origin. The $77,217 20-day EMA must hold to keep momentum intact.