Bitcoin holds near $78,000 despite oil spike and Fed hike bets

Bitcoin traded around $78,000 on Tuesday despite higher oil prices and rising expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Bitcoin gained roughly 25% in August, its best August since 2017 and strongest month overall since November 2024, according to LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger. Renewed escalation between the U.S. and Iran pushed Brent crude above $90. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks raised expectations for a September rate hike. Kruger said higher bond yields, a firmer dollar, and renewed geopolitical stress are creating headwinds for risk assets. Kruger said higher oil prices and Warsh's message are limiting bitcoin's immediate upside. Buyers have continued to step in on dips. Bitcoin briefly moved above $81,000 last week. Bitcoin later fell below $78,000 after Warsh's speech. Bitcoin finished the week almost flat after gaining 23% the previous week. De Maere said bitcoin absorbed the change in rate expectations, a chip-stock selloff, and month-end trading without giving back its breakout. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $924 million of inflows over nine straight positive sessions. The ETFs then recorded a $202 million outflow on Friday. Wintermute expects bitcoin to remain choppy until the rate decision. De Maere identified $82,000 and $75,000 as key levels into the FOMC meeting in mid-September. Wintermute sees resistance around $82,000 and support at $75,000 and $72,000. Kruger expects bitcoin to consolidate. Kruger identified $80,000 to $82,820 as the main range bitcoin needs to clear. Kruger said a sustained break above that range could open a move back above $100,000. Traders are focusing on Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect employment to rise by 55,000 in August. Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1%, according to Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda. Rodda said another weaker-than-expected jobs report may cast doubt on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in a deteriorating labor market.