Capgemini survey says banks risk losing $230 billion in payments revenue

Capgemini's World Payments Report 2027 says banks risk losing $230 billion in payments revenue as stablecoins, tokenized deposits and central bank digital currencies gain wider use. The report projects that these instruments will account for about 4% of global payments volume by 2030. Capgemini says the shift could pressure banks' foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking revenue, float income and transaction fees. The study says about $4 trillion is trapped in accounts used to fund cross-border settlement. Nearly 60% of large corporates would use stablecoin services from non-banks if their banks fall behind. However, 71% still prefer banks for tokenized payments when cost and quality are equal. Only 21% of banks are actively scaling at least one of these tools. Banks ranked tokenized deposits as their top near-term priority because the deposits remain on balance sheets and fit existing rules. Banks already scaling these tools are three times more likely to find new revenue streams. Those banks expect to offset losses in 15 months, compared with 25 months for other banks. Capgemini's global head of payment services, Jeroen Hölscher, said banks must decide what role to play with $230 billion at stake. The report surveyed 1,110 corporates with more than $1 billion in revenue and 300 banking executives across nine markets.