Sugar price jumps 30% in five weeks to highest since April 2025

The sugar price climbed almost 30% in five weeks. The price reached 18.15 cents per pound on Thursday. That was its highest level since April 2025. The rally began on Aug. 3 from 13.97 cents. Three supply shocks drove the move. Speculative funds amplified it. Brazilian mills shifted cane from sugar to ethanol. Brent crude near $94 a barrel made fuel more profitable. The Hormuz closure kept energy costs high. Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% year over year in June, according to UNICA. India banned sugar exports in May. India then opened 1 million tonnes of duty-free raw imports through Oct. 31. The purchase was India's first sizeable one since the 2017-18 season. Domestic sugar prices reached a 16-year high. The government limited bulk buyers to 15 days of stock. Green Pool projects a 3.2 million tonne deficit for 2026/27. StoneX projects a 1.7 million tonne deficit. Covrig Analytics and Czarnikow had expected surpluses in June. Czarnikow now forecasts another shortfall in 2027/28. A strong El Nino adds risk to Indian and Thai cane. Goldman flagged that threat in June. Sugar broke above the 0.236 Fibonacci level at 15.58 cents in August. The weekly chart tracks a retracement of the decline from 23.38 cents. The price sits at the 0.5 retracement at 18.28 cents. Thursday's candle reached 18.58 cents before the price eased. A weekly close above 18.28 cents would expose the 0.618 retracement at 19.48 cents. The 19.48-cent level coincides with the declining 200-week moving average. The 0.786 retracement at 21.20 cents is higher. The 0.382 retracement at 17.08 cents provides initial support. A deeper correction would retest 15.58 cents. Managed money held 207,100 net long contracts in late August. That was a two-year high. Managed money was net short in May. Crowded positioning could sharpen a reversal.