Gold falls 5.5% from three-month high as Goldman sees 10% upside

Gold fell 5.5% from the 4,697 three-month high it reached on August 25. Gold traded near 4,436 at press time. Goldman Sachs Research reaffirmed its 4,900 target for the end of 2026 in a note published August 28. That target implies roughly 10% upside from the press-time price. Gold recorded multiple closes below its 200-day moving average, the first such sequence since early June, according to Barchart. The average stood near 4,529. Gold briefly traded below 4,400 on Monday, its weakest level since August 19. Barchart said SPDR Gold Shares entered a technical correction the last time gold recorded multiple closes below the average. Renewed bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike drove the latest decline. Higher rates weigh on gold because the metal pays no yield. Goldman Sachs cut its target by $500 in June as bets on 2026 rate cuts faded. Senior commodities analyst Lina Thomas and Global Commodities Research co-head Daan Struyven linked the bank's outlook to official buying. They wrote that elevated central bank gold accumulation would continue as a multi-year trend because central banks are diversifying reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks. Goldman Sachs expects central banks to buy an average of 50 tonnes per month in 2026, compared with 17 tonnes before 2022. Fidelity's analysis valued gold around 5,000 against global M2 money supply, about 13% above the press-time price. Goldman Sachs's June note put gold at 4,400 by year-end if the Federal Reserve raises rates. The note said a sustained break would also test the debasement trade, which links gold and Bitcoin demand to currency erosion.