Bitcoin rises to $64K as Hormuz hopes lift S&P 500 to $70T record

Key Point

TradingView data showed Bitcoin climbing to $64,176 on Bitstamp, with maximum daily gains of around 1% as markets bet on easing US-Iran tensions. Scott Bessent told CNBC that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could restart as soon as Wednesday. WTI and Brent crude traded 4.8% and 4.6% lower, while the S&P 500 hit 7,713 and a $70 trillion market cap for the first time. CryptoQuant reported strong accumulation, with 0.7% of BTC supply, or around 155,000 coins, held by investors with a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bullish, Risk-on, Macro-driven, Re-risking.

Reason: Optimism over a possible Strait of Hormuz reopening lifted risk markets, which supports cautious upside sentiment.

Similar Past Cases

This type of geopolitical de-escalation usually supports risk appetite when traders expect lower energy costs and less inflation pressure. The current setup differs because the reopening remains a possible timeline rather than a completed operational change.

Ripple Effect

Lower perceived energy disruption risk could reduce inflation concerns and support risk assets through expectations for future central bank policy. If Hormuz traffic restarts, then the risk-on channel could strengthen; if the restart slips, then the channel could fade.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: Watch whether Hormuz traffic restarts as discussed. Confirmation could support risk-sensitive crypto monitoring without requiring immediate action.

Risks: Watch whether oil prices rebound while Bitcoin stays below the 21-day simple moving average. That combination could signal that the risk-on move is weakening.