Binance Research says Bitcoin's 293-day reset may signal stronger rallies

Binance Research says Bitcoin's 293 days below its 200-day average before the September 8 golden cross may help identify stronger recoveries. Binance Research's latest weekly report compared the setup with 12 earlier golden crosses. Binance's chart divides the cases into "shallow reset" and "deep freeze" groups. A golden cross forms when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day average. Binance sorted the past crosses by how many days BTC closed below its 200-day average in the preceding year. Six crosses after at least 150 such days saw peak gains of roughly 100% to 600% within a year. Crosses after shallower resets varied more. Four of those six peaked below 100%. Longer resets did not correspond neatly to larger gains in Binance's chart. The strongest runs, in February and May 2020, followed just over 150 days below the trend. The closest match on that measure was the October 2015 cross. Bitcoin had spent roughly 297 days below the average before that cross. The cross peaked near 150% within a year. BTC posted an $81,159 weekly close on September 20. That was its first close above the 50-week average since November 9, 2025. Binance said the figures reflect peak gains within the following year, not returns from holding BTC for 12 months. Binance also said the small, overlapping sample limits how much the history can predict. Binance tied Bitcoin's recent pullback to rising bond yields. Brent crude topped $103. Business activity data reached a 62-month high. A Treasury auction drew weak demand. Those moves lifted the US 10-year yield to 5.17% by September 25, its highest level since 2007. Binance said those moves also pushed October rate hike odds toward 70%. BTC slipped from its recent high above $86,000. BTC traded at $83,175 at press time, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow of 2026. Binance said stronger confirmation would come if BTC holds above its 50-week average through upcoming inflation and jobs data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is due this week. Payrolls are due this week. Both will test that level.