Bitcoin tracks best August since 2017 despite US-Iran hostilities

Bitcoin is on track for its best August since 2017 despite renewed US-Iran hostilities. Bitcoin was trading near $78,400 at the time of publication. Bitcoin's monthly advance exceeded 24%. CoinGlass data showed the gain was Bitcoin's strongest August rally in nine years. The gain was also Bitcoin's largest single-month increase since November 2024. Crude oil rose above $90 a barrel after US airstrikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against US military positions in Jordan. Brent crude rose more than 3% to about $91 a barrel on Monday. Washington signaled that it plans to intensify secondary sanctions on Iranian oil exports. US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend. US Central Command said the launchers were reportedly preparing to deploy naval mines into the Strait of Hormuz. Iran targeted American installations in Jordan. Jordanian air defenses intercepted eight inbound missiles. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said the developments reduced the prospects of ending the conflict. Hansen said an estimated 6 million to 8 million barrels of crude continue to flow uninterrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Warsh said progress on lowering inflation had stalled above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Warsh said policymakers should focus primarily on price stability. The remarks pushed Treasury yields higher. The market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting rose to 60%. Bitcoin later recovered above $78,000. Fidelity Investments Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Bitcoin's corrective phase may have matured. Timmer said Bitcoin held the lower boundary of his power-law curve. Bitcoin's recent cycle low was near $59,572. Power-law support was around $58,237. Timmer said Bitcoin's correction appeared to satisfy the model's price and duration conditions. Timmer's framework does not establish that Bitcoin has definitively completed its correction. Bit Official said aggregate stablecoin market capitalization has remained largely stagnant. Circle's USDC recorded modest supply growth. Tether's USDT showed little material expansion. USDT grew from $120 billion to $196 billion between August 2024 and October 2025. USDC rose from $35 billion to $75 billion over the same period. Bit Official said Bitcoin's options skew turned positive for the first time since October 2025. September implied volatility rose from 33.8% to 41.1%. September implied volatility later moderated to 38.5%. CryptoQuant data showed exchange volumes remained near levels last seen in September 2023. Monthly spot volume on Binance fell to about $44 billion from $198 billion. Gate's volume fell to $14 billion from $53.4 billion. Bybit's volume fell to $17.4 billion from $41.2 billion. Binance's August volume was about $1.6 billion higher than in July. CryptoQuant said a sustained recovery in volume alongside rising prices would provide stronger evidence of a new expansionary phase. Bitcoin faced overhead resistance between $78,214 and $82,139. Bit Official said a decisive break and hold above $82,000 would strengthen the bullish thesis. Bit Official identified $70,973 as an important level for preserving the broader uptrend. Rising exchange volumes alongside a sustained move through $80,000 and $82,000 would provide stronger confirmation that the rebound is broadening beyond price momentum alone.