Trump Prioritizes Iran Deal Over Major Military Strike

Key Point

US President Trump said he is prioritizing negotiations with Iran over any large-scale military operation, while saying an attack remains possible. Trump said the US prepared for what would have been the "biggest attack since World War II," but the operation is now on hold after direct outreach from Iranian representatives. Trump said Iranian officials asked for a delay by saying, "Please don't do it. Let's talk," but those officials later denied that Iran is open to negotiate. Trump said Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon and offered no specifics on the talks.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bullish, Risk-on, Event-driven.

Reason: Trump's preference for negotiations over a large-scale military operation may reduce immediate geopolitical risk, but the attack option remains possible.

Similar Past Cases

When geopolitical threats shift from planned strikes toward talks, markets typically reduce some risk premium only after both sides confirm de-escalation. The current situation differs because Iran later denied openness to negotiate, which keeps the signal incomplete.

Ripple Effect

The main transmission channel is risk appetite because a credible diplomatic path could reduce defensive positioning, while renewed strike preparations could restore stress. If the talks produce confirmed steps, then risk appetite could improve; if the attack option becomes active again, then risk appetite could weaken.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: Monitor whether the talks produce confirmed details from the US or Iran because clearer diplomacy could support risk appetite.

Risks: Monitor whether either side rejects talks or returns to military preparations because that could renew geopolitical stress.