Strategy shares fall despite Bitcoin breaking above $87,000

Strategy shares reversed earlier gains and traded lower Friday despite Bitcoin breaking above $87,000 and Citi raising its price target. Benzinga Pro showed Strategy shares down 0.61% at $159.52 at publication on Friday. Citi analyst Peter Christiansen raised his Strategy price target to $240 from $136 while maintaining a Buy rating. Christiansen cited a revised 12-month Bitcoin forecast of roughly $113,400, up 39%, as the main driver. Christiansen said the new target assumes about 34% of the upside comes from the higher Bitcoin price. Christiansen tied the remaining 16% to an expected expansion in Strategy's market-to-net-asset-value multiple. Christiansen raised that multiple to 1.24 from 1.065 after increasing his Bitcoin Yield Multiple assumption to 4.0 times from 2.5 times. Christiansen raised his fiscal 2027 adjusted Bitcoin Yield estimate by about 190 basis points to roughly 5.9%. Christiansen cut his fiscal 2026 estimate to negative 3.3%, which Christiansen tied to Strategy's cash reserve build and Bitcoin sales in the third quarter. Changes in the broader macroeconomic environment reinforced the earlier advance in Bitcoin and related equities. Treasury yields retreated Friday as investors further reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased to 5.25% after reaching 5.34%, its highest intraday level since April 2002. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of another rate increase falling to 24.9% from 37.6% the previous day. Lower yields reduce the appeal of fixed-income investments. A less aggressive Federal Reserve outlook eases concerns about future financial conditions, which often benefits assets such as Bitcoin. Those favorable developments initially supported Strategy shares because of the stock's strong correlation with Bitcoin. However, Strategy shares erased earlier gains as the session progressed despite Citi's bullish assessment and the supportive macroeconomic environment. Strategy holds more Bitcoin than any other public company. Strategy's balance sheet carried 847,666 Bitcoin as of late September. Strategy retains a legacy software business, but investors largely disregard that business. The market treats Strategy shares as a substitute for Bitcoin exposure, so the stock tends to move alongside the cryptocurrency.