JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin production cost at around $85,000

JPMorgan estimated Bitcoin's production cost at around $85,000, making that level critical for miners. In a September 23 note, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou described production cost as a soft floor for Bitcoin's price. At the time, Bitcoin traded at $85,795, above the bank's $84,948 cost estimate. Bitcoin had spent 280 days below that level, longer than the roughly 224-day mining downturn in 2018. Bitcoin briefly reached $87,000 earlier this week but is now roughly 2.4% below JPMorgan's estimated cost. Hashrate fell around 19% from its October peak. Mining difficulty dropped roughly 15%. Higher-cost miners switched off machines, retired older rigs and sought cheaper power. Some miners redirected capacity toward AI workloads. JPMorgan analysts wrote that a sustained move above production cost should relieve miners and reduce the risk of forced selling. CryptoQuant data shows miner-to-exchange flows approached 24,000 BTC during February's selling wave. Later flows reached roughly 12,400 BTC in June, 13,500 BTC in August and about 10,000 BTC during September's rally above $85,000. Transfers to exchanges do not always mean immediate sales. Capriole's Hash Ribbons show Bitcoin's 30-day average hashrate fell from about 1,105 EH/s in late 2025 to 895 EH/s in August. It has since recovered to roughly 947 EH/s, barely above the 60-day average of 943 EH/s. The gap is less than 0.5%, so the recovery could reverse.