3 indicators suggest Bitcoin could rally despite rising bond yields

Binance Research analysts Moulik Nagesh and Ken Lam say three indicators could counter rising bond yields' pressure on Bitcoin. Bitcoin has pulled back to around $84,000 over the last week. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.17%, its highest level since 2007, after a weak 5-year Treasury auction. The auction also pushed October rate-hike odds toward 70%. The analysts say pressure from long-term yields currently matters more to Bitcoin than the Fed's policy decision. Spot Bitcoin ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of $5.69 billion on July 13 after net outflows for most of 2026. They drew $999 million on Sept. 21, their largest daily inflow of the year. Flows have remained positive since, putting 2026 into net positive territory. The analysts say the flows signal spot demand rather than futures-driven speculation. Bitcoin closed the week of Sept. 20 at $81,159, above its 50-week moving average for the first time since Nov. 9, 2025. Its 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day average on Sept. 8 after spending 293 days below it. Among 12 similar prior crosses, those following at least 150 days below the 200-day average were associated with peak gains between 100% and 600% within the following year. The analysts caution that those figures are peak gains, not guaranteed returns. They also say the small, overlapping sample limits the pattern's usefulness. Softer-than-expected core PCE data could ease rate pressure and support Bitcoin's recovery. Hotter inflation, strong payrolls or an upward GDP revision could increase pressure on Bitcoin.