Michael Burry bets on copper instead of the AI rally

Michael Burry backed Ero Copper as his indirect AI bet. Ero Copper is a Brazil-focused copper-and-gold producer. Burry said he was largely ignoring the AI stock rally in a September 21 Substack post. Copper gained nearly 20% in 2026 and more than 46% over the past year. Copper futures reached a record $6.95 a pound intraday on September 22. Futures closed at a record $6.92. Chinese buyers stocked up ahead of the holidays as the rally accelerated from mid-September. Gold gained 0.02% year-to-date. Silver fell 8.5% year-to-date. Over the past year, silver gained 49.2%. Gold gained 15.47%. Copper fell almost 8% earlier this month after reports that a White House tariff plan had stalled. Shanghai copper cathode inventories fell to 43,900 tonnes, their lowest level since 2023. Cancelled warrants in London rose to 122,150 tonnes on Tuesday. Cancelled warrants represented 48% of metal on warrant. The amount of metal available was 133,725 tonnes. Major copper discoveries with deposits containing at least 500,000 tonnes fell from double digits a year to one or two. No such discovery was reported in 2025. Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, said new deposits need roughly 18 years to reach production. Data centers add copper demand within two to three years. S&P Global expects copper demand to climb 50% to 42 million tonnes by 2040. S&P Global projects a 10-million-tonne shortfall by then without significant adjustments. CRU projected a 639,000-tonne global surplus for 2026. CRU viewed the market as balanced at best in August. Burry said part of the rally reflected a temporary lull in supply. Traders are waiting for the White House tariff decision. The decision will shape whether US stockpiles reach buyers elsewhere.