Bitcoin Surges 25% Near $80,000 After Treasury Buyback Expansion

Key Point

Bitcoin jumped about 25% since Wednesday and passed $78,000 after the U.S. Treasury expanded buybacks of long-dated bonds. The Treasury doubled each operation to $4 billion from $2 billion. The 30-year Treasury yield fell from 5.34% to around 5.19%. Roughly $4 billion in bearish crypto positions were liquidated on Thursday and Friday, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $650 million in weekly inflows. CoinEx chief analyst Jeff Ko said the program was not quantitative easing and remained relatively small.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bullish, Macro-driven, Volatile.

Reason: The Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks and long-term Treasury yields declined.

Similar Past Cases

This type of yield-driven Bitcoin rally typically gains strength when lower long-term yields improve demand for risk assets. Short liquidations can accelerate the initial move, but the rally can weaken if yields reverse or new demand does not persist.

Ripple Effect

Lower long-term yields could reduce the relative appeal of government debt and support risk appetite across crypto assets. If Bitcoin remains above its 200-day moving average, traders may view the rally as more durable.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: Monitor whether Bitcoin remains above its 200-day moving average near $69,000. Sustained support above that level would indicate that demand is holding after the liquidation-driven move.

Risks: Monitor long-term Treasury yields after the buyback expansion. A yield reversal could reduce the macro support that accompanied the Bitcoin rally.