Nike stock hits 12-year low, on pace for worst year since Michael Jordan first retired

Nike stock closed at $38.59 on Wednesday, reaching a 12-year low. The price put Nike on pace for its worst calendar year since Michael Jordan first retired. Jordan announced his first retirement on October 6, 1993. Barchart data shows that Nike stock had already fallen roughly 40% that year. The retirement was not the cause of the initial decline. The United States sneaker market had saturated. Nike posted its first revenue decline in a decade. Fiscal 1994 revenue fell 3.6% to $3.79 billion. Net income fell 18% to $298.8 million. Jordan's exit deepened a selloff that had already started. Nike shares fell 15.5% on April 1 after earnings. The April 1 decline came months before August's China headlines. Nike's Greater China revenue has declined for eight consecutive quarters. A one-time tariff refund increased the most recent quarter's reported margin. Nike's monthly chart shows the stock 78.55% below its November 2021 record. The price has returned to its August 2014 level. The monthly relative strength index reads 28.64. A reading below 30 marks oversold conditions. Readings that low are rare on a monthly timeframe. Volume has risen steadily during the decline. Rising volume can indicate conviction behind selling. Heavy volume at multiyear lows can also mark capitulation. Two converging trendlines point toward the low $30s by year's end. Support is at $38.41. Resistance is at $43.21. Nike's drawdown already exceeds Bitcoin's over the same period. A monthly close between roughly $33 and $35 would exceed the 1993 loss, depending on the measurement. Nike stock gained 63.7% in 1994. It gained 88.9% in 1995. It gained 73.6% in 1996. Jordan returned to basketball in March 1995. Nike has scheduled an investor day for November 16 and 17. Replacement Sportswear product will not arrive until spring 2027.