Bitcoin hits $77,000 wall as weak jobs meet $90 oil

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 as softer U.S. labor data failed to dislodge expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase. Bitcoin traded around $76,985 as of press time. July job openings held at 7.3 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 5.1 million hires in July. The report showed 3.1 million quits. June job openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million. CME FedWatch put the probability of a September rate increase at 66%. The probability was about 60% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Aug. 28 Jackson Hole speech. Warsh said employment remained consistent with full employment. Warsh said unusually low turnover partly reflected worker and employer rematching after the pandemic. Warsh identified inflation as his concern. The ISM manufacturing index was 54.6 in August. The index was 55.6 previously. ISM new orders were 53.7 in August. New orders were 56.7 previously. ISM employment was 51.2 in August. Employment was 52.8 previously. ISM's Prices Index held at 71.1 for a second month. Respondents cited fuel and oil-based products among commodities becoming more expensive. West Texas Intermediate rose 5.2% to settle at $90.22. Brent rose 4.6% to $94.65. The Iran crisis continued to unsettle energy markets. The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.39% from 4.34%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.79% from 4.75%. The Fed entered 2026 expecting several rate cuts. Markets now assign a better-than-even probability to another increase. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $236.46 million of net outflows on Sept. 1. The ETFs recorded $216.7 million of inflows on Aug. 31. Bitcoin had traded above $81,000 before Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks pushed rate expectations higher. Bitcoin then fell below $77,000. James E. Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington Altus, said higher rates in response to an externally driven energy shock could increase economic damage. Thorne said the Fed can weaken domestic demand through higher borrowing costs. Thorne said the Fed cannot increase oil supply or resolve the geopolitical conditions pushing crude higher. August payroll data arrives Sept. 4. Producer prices arrive Sept. 10. Consumer prices arrive Sept. 11. The Fed announces its decision Sept. 16. A materially weak payroll report would challenge the view that employment remains consistent with full employment. Lower oil and softer inflation data could give markets a clearer reason to reduce September rate increase expectations. Weak employment with crude near current levels would leave labor conditions deteriorating while an external supply shock kept inflation pressure elevated. Firm hiring with persistent price pressure could push short-term yields higher again.