Citi raises Bitcoin target to $113,000 as Bitwise sees gains from CLARITY defeat

Citigroup raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast from $82,000 to $113,000 on Thursday, implying roughly 35% upside from current levels. Citi raised its Ethereum target from $2,240 to $3,028, about 12% above current prices. Citi expects slower but more persistent Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows of $5 billion over the next 12 months as advisers and brokerages gradually increase allocations. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds had recorded $5.8 billion in net outflows by July 13, but 2026 inflows reached $800 million by late September. Citi called the Securities and Exchange Commission's rule announcements after the CLARITY Act's Senate defeat a temporary but meaningful positive. Citi said regulatory rules may provide clarity in place of the CLARITY Act at this stage of the electoral cycle. However, Citi warned that an administration change in 2028 could reverse those rules, a risk outside its current forecast window. Citi also identified the Treasury's bond buyback program as a catalyst for renewed momentum across crypto. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan wrote in a Wednesday memo that crypto rallied more than most expected after the CLARITY Act failed. Bitcoin rose 8% and Ethereum rose 7% since the vote. NEAR rose 104% and Uniswap rose 49% over the same period. Hougan argues that crypto exchanged long-term legal certainty for faster, more favorable regulatory rules. Hougan said the Genius Act remains in effect and does not address exchange rewards on stablecoin balances, allowing Coinbase to continue offering unlimited rewards without a federal cap. Hougan said Coinbase and Kraken retain an advantage over new entrants under state-by-state licensing because the CLARITY Act's national framework did not pass. Hougan said the SEC allowed tokenized U.S. stocks to trade immediately through permissioned venues two days after the bill failed. Hougan said the SEC clarified that announcing a token buyback program does not automatically make the token a security. Hougan identified a new administration installing regulators who reverse course in 2029 as the biggest risk. However, Hougan argues that crypto will likely be too deeply embedded in major financial firms' blockchain infrastructure by then to suppress.