September 21, 09:10

Bitcoin rises above $80,000 as $148 billion Treasury cash build passes

Bitcoin shattered $80,000 after a $148 billion US liquidity shock failed to break markets

CryptoSlate

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 after a $148.003 billion US Treasury cash build failed to destabilize overnight funding markets. The Treasury General Account rose by $148.003 billion through Sept. 16 to $991.708 billion, according to Federal Reserve data, as tax payments moved cash into the government's account at the central bank. Commercial-bank deposits at the Fed fell by $114.971 billion over the same period to $2.922 trillion. The difference between the two moves indicated that the Treasury increase did not produce a one-for-one reserve drain because other balance-sheet flows were also involved. Large tax-date inflows can temporarily remove cash from private markets and increase short-term funding costs. That risk gained importance after the Fed raised its benchmark interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate rose to 3.85% on Sept. 17 across almost $3 trillion of transactions. The rate was five basis points below the Fed's new 3.90% interest rate on reserve balances. The 25th and 75th percentiles of trading were 3.83% and 3.90%, respectively. The 99th percentile reached 3.93%, which was seven basis points below the Fed's 4% standing repo facility rate. These figures suggested that tax-date withdrawals tightened funding conditions without pushing broad money markets outside the Fed's operating corridor. SOFR rose 23 basis points from 3.62% after the Fed's rate increase took effect. The scheduled policy reset was therefore the clearest explanation for most of the repricing, while tax-related cash demand may have added pressure at the margin. Bitcoin rose from about $76,147 to more than $80,000 during the period. It was trading around $82,000 at press time, according to CryptoSlate data. The rebound coincided with renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, a technology-led equity rally and weakness in the yen. The role of short covering remained unresolved. The funding data provided little evidence that the Treasury transfer itself generated demand for Bitcoin. They instead showed that a liquidity risk passed without becoming a broader disruption. The next test is whether ETF demand, positioning and broader risk appetite can support Bitcoin after the temporary tax-date pressure has passed. A renewed rise in short-term funding costs could change that outlook.

This content is an AI-generated summary/analysis for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.